Monthly Archive for November, 2006

Looking at Stats and Probability School Rumble Style

OK I told you guys I was leaving right? But I couldn’t bear the thought of 9 days without any School Rumble merchandise, so I went to this neighbourhood store, the daylight-robbing Comics Connection, where they were selling the School Rumble Keychains from Alter for double the retail price. These were still sealed in boxes, so I didn’t know what I was buying.

There are ten different types.

And I chose to take a chance.

I wanted Eri, Yakumo and Akira, so that means five out of ten of these were acceptable, a 50% chance. I bought one. IT WAS BIKINI MIKOTO FUCK. I walked right back into the store and bought a second one. IT WAS KAREN! Damn. I’m ok with Karen but somehow, she’s not my type.

So I actually got the worst possible combination actually. 5/10 x 4/9 = 2/9. I had a 22 percent chance of failing to get even ONE girl that I wanted. And I got this 22 percent.

The chances of getting one crappy chain (Mikotos, Sara, Tenma and Karen) and then one desired chain was 5/10 + 5/10 x 5/9 which is about 78 percent!! Or you could just take 100-22.

IT’S A FUCKING OMEN!! Actually, I should’ve just bought one more. Then the chances of not getting what I wanted would be very very slim. 5/10 + 5/10 x 5/9 + 5/10 x 4/9 x 5/8 = about 92 percent!!! Nobody fails at 92 percent!

Hmm but upon closer examination, the fact that I had already failed twice means that if I bought the 3rd one, my chances of getting a good keychain would actually be only 5/8, that is 62.5 percent, rather than 92 percent.

I thought this while on the way home. But then again, I’m probably getting the whole set upon my return to Singapore so less duplicates the better.


Figure Expedition: It’s Time to Expand Our Backgrounds to Kangerooland

That’s right, I’ll be going over to Australia for a week and a half to get some fresh backdrops for my figurine shoots. Meanwhile, this site will be taking a break.

I’m heading to Rockhampton actually, I bet none of you guys live there since the place is tiny with nothing but dancing naked women who all look like Tatiana Wisla.

My list of equipment is as follows:

Air Stewardess Miu (to keep me company on the plane) God, thanks to the holiday season I had to go to Melbourne first, then Brisbane and then Rockhampton because all the flights were booked by screaming soiled-panty babies and their conniving mothers.

Solty Revant, because she has a very compact pose and I got her on a discount so there’s no fear of her getting lost or dirtied from the dingoes of the outback.

Anyway, see you guys when I get back! I’m looking forward to plenty of blue sky, scorching sun and warm bushfires, with the occasional stingray.